Sayed Abdullah

Chuma cha Vietnam ndi cha nambala 44 padziko lonse lapansi ndipo kuyambira pakati pa zaka za m'ma 1980, dziko la Vietnam lasintha kwambiri kuchoka pa chuma champhamvu kwambiri chothandizidwa ndi chuma chotseguka chomwe chimadalira msika.

N’zosadabwitsa kuti ndi limodzi mwa mayiko omwe akukula mofulumira kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi, ndipo GDP yake ikhoza kukula pafupifupi 5.1% pachaka, zomwe zingapangitse kuti chuma chake chikhale cha 20 padziko lonse lapansi pofika chaka cha 2050.

Komabe, nkhani yodziwika padziko lonse lapansi ndi yakuti Vietnam ili pafupi kukhala imodzi mwa malo akuluakulu opangira zinthu zomwe zingatheke kutenga ulamuliro wa China chifukwa cha kupita patsogolo kwachuma.

Chochititsa chidwi n'chakuti, Vietnam ikukula ngati malo opangira zinthu m'derali, makamaka m'magawo monga zovala ndi nsapato ndi zamagetsi.

Kumbali ina, kuyambira m'ma 80, dziko la China lakhala likuchita ntchito yaikulu yopanga zinthu padziko lonse lapansi chifukwa cha zipangizo zake zazikulu zopangira, anthu ogwira ntchito komanso mphamvu zake zamafakitale. Kukula kwa mafakitale kwapatsidwa chidwi chachikulu pomwe mafakitale omanga makina ndi zitsulo apatsidwa mwayi waukulu.

Popeza ubale pakati pa Washington ndi Beijing ukuchepa, tsogolo la maunyolo ogulitsa padziko lonse lapansi ndi losayembekezereka. Ngakhale mauthenga osayembekezereka a White House akupitilizabe kubweretsa mafunso okhudza momwe mfundo zamalonda zaku US zimayendera, mitengo yankhondo yamalonda ikupitirirabe kugwira ntchito.

Pakadali pano, zotsatira za lamulo lachitetezo cha dziko lomwe laperekedwa ku Beijing, lomwe likuopseza kuti lichepetse ufulu wa Hong Kong, zikuika pachiwopsezo mgwirizano wamalonda womwe uli kale wosalimba pakati pa mayiko awiriwa amphamvu. Komanso kukwera kwa mitengo ya antchito kukutanthauza kuti China ipitiliza kufunafuna makampani apamwamba omwe sagwiritsa ntchito ndalama zambiri.

Kusakhazikika kumeneku, komwe kukugwirizana ndi mpikisano wopeza zinthu zachipatala ndikupanga katemera wa COVID-19, kukuyambitsa kuwunikanso kwa maunyolo ogulitsa omwe amafika nthawi yake omwe amapatsa mwayi wogwira ntchito bwino kuposa china chilichonse.

Pa nthawi yomweyo, momwe China yathandizira COVID-19 yabweretsera mafunso ambiri pakati pa mayiko akumadzulo. Pomwe Vietnam ndi imodzi mwa mayiko oyambilira omwe achepetsa njira zopewera mtunda pakati pa anthu ndikutsegulanso anthu ake kuyambira mu Epulo 2020, komwe mayiko ambiri akuyamba kumene kuthana ndi kuopsa ndi kufalikira kwa COVID-19.

Dziko lonse lapansi ladabwa ndi kupambana kwa Vietnam panthawi ya mliri wa COVID-19.

Kuthekera kwa Vietnam kukhala likulu la mafakitale

Polimbana ndi vuto la padziko lonse lapansi lomwe likuchitika, chuma cha ku Asia chomwe chikukwera - Vietnam - chikukonzekera kukhala dziko lotsatira lopanga zinthu.

Vietnam yakhala mpikisano wamphamvu kuti itenge gawo lalikulu padziko lonse lapansi pambuyo pa COVID-19.

Malinga ndi Kearney US Reshoring Index, yomwe imayerekeza zomwe zimapangidwa ku US ndi zomwe zimapangidwa kuchokera kumayiko 14 aku Asia, idakwera kwambiri mu 2019, chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa 17% kwa zinthu zomwe zimagulidwa ku China.

Malinga ndi lipoti la Medium, bungwe la zamalonda la ku America ku South China linapezanso kuti 64% ya makampani aku US kum'mwera kwa dzikolo anali kuganizira zosamukira kwina kupanga zinthu.

Chuma cha ku Vietnam chinakula ndi 8% mu 2019, mothandizidwa ndi kuwonjezeka kwa malonda ochokera kunja. Chikuyembekezekanso kukula ndi 1.5% chaka chino.

Banki Yapadziko Lonse yalosera kuti vuto la COVID-19 lomwe lafika poipa kwambiri lafika pa 1.5% chaka chino, zomwe zili bwino kuposa mayiko ambiri aku South Asia.

Kupatula apo, ndi kuphatikiza kugwira ntchito molimbika, kudziwika kwa dziko, komanso kupanga mikhalidwe yabwino yogulira, Vietnam yakopa makampani/ndalama zakunja, zomwe zapatsa opanga mwayi wolowa m'malo ochitira malonda aulere a ASEAN komanso mapangano amalonda apadera ndi mayiko aku Asia konse ndi European Union, komanso USA.

Ndipo posachedwapa, dzikolo lalimbikitsa kupanga zida zachipatala ndipo lapereka zopereka zina kumayiko omwe akhudzidwa ndi COVID-19, komanso ku USA, Russia, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, ndi UK.

Chinthu china chatsopano chomwe chikuchitika ndi kuthekera kwa makampani ambiri aku US kupanga zinthu kuchokera ku China kupita ku Vietnam. Ndipo gawo la Vietnam la zovala zochokera ku US lapindula pamene gawo la China pamsika likutsika - dzikolo lapitirira China ndipo lakhala pamwamba pa ogulitsa zovala ku US mu Marichi ndi Epulo chaka chino.

Deta ya malonda a katundu ku US a 2019 ikuwonetsa izi, kutumiza konse kwa Vietnam ku USA kwakwera ndi 35%, kapena $17.5 biliyoni.

Kwa zaka makumi awiri zapitazi, dzikolo lakhala likusintha kwambiri kuti likwaniritse mafakitale osiyanasiyana. Vietnam yakhala ikusiya chuma chake chaulimi kuti ipange chuma chozikidwa pamsika komanso choyang'ana kwambiri mafakitale.

Vuto loti mugonjetse

Koma pali zovuta zambiri zomwe ziyenera kuthetsedwa ngati dzikolo likufuna kugwirizana ndi China.

Mwachitsanzo, mtundu wa makampani opanga zinthu otsika mtengo ku Vietnam ungakhale pachiwopsezo - ngati dzikolo silikupita patsogolo mu unyolo wamtengo wapatali, mayiko ena m'chigawochi monga Bangladesh, Thailand kapena Cambodia nawonso amapereka antchito otsika mtengo.

Kuphatikiza apo, chifukwa cha khama lalikulu la boma lofuna kuyika ndalama zambiri pakupanga zinthu zamakono komanso zomangamanga kuti zigwirizane ndi unyolo wogulitsa padziko lonse lapansi, kampani yochepa yamayiko ambiri (MNCs) yokha ndi yomwe ili ndi zochitika zochepa zofufuza ndi chitukuko (R&D) ku Vietnam.

Mliri wa COVID-19 unawonetsanso kuti Vietnam imadalira kwambiri zinthu zopangira kunja ndipo imangochita gawo lopanga ndi kusonkhanitsa zinthu zoti zitumizidwe kunja. Popanda makampani othandizira omwe akugwirizana kwambiri, zidzakhala maloto osatheka kukwaniritsa kupanga kwakukulu kotereku ngati China.

Kupatula izi, zoletsa zina zikuphatikizapo kukula kwa gulu la ogwira ntchito, kupezeka kwa ogwira ntchito aluso, kuthekera kothana ndi kufunikira kwakukulu kwa ntchito, ndi zina zambiri.

Gawo lina lofunika kwambiri ndi mabizinesi ang'onoang'ono, ang'onoang'ono ndi apakatikati ku Vietnam (MSMEs) - omwe ali ndi 93.7% ya mabizinesi onse - ali m'misika yaying'ono kwambiri ndipo sangathe kukulitsa ntchito zawo kwa anthu ambiri. Izi zimapangitsa kuti zikhale zovuta kwambiri nthawi yamavuto, monga momwe zinalili ndi mliri wa COVID-19.

Chifukwa chake, ndikofunikira kuti mabizinesi abwerere m'mbuyo ndikuganiziranso njira yawo yosinthira - popeza dzikolo likadali ndi mtunda wautali woti likwaniritse zomwe China ikuchita, kodi pamapeto pake zingakhale bwino kugwiritsa ntchito njira ya 'China-plus-one' m'malo mwake?